Dollar Weakens

The dollar weakened against it's basket of currencies last week following the US government's affliction over budget cuts and a looming resolution needed on the federal borrowing limit.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and the decision on the federal borrowing limit are likely to direct the movement of the US dollar over the next few months.

Wall Street Journal, April, 11, 2011
Dollar Still in a Downdraft

Government Borrowing Limits

Done with the $38 billion budget cut, next on the government’s agenda will be increasing the federal borrowing limit. Money owed to Social Security comprises the majority of the federal debt, which ended September 2010 at $13.5 trillion. As the government is on track to exceed the current limit of $14.25 trillion by mid-May, debt will either have to be restructured or the federal debt limit increased.

Increasing the federal debt limit would call for another round of budget cuts which is not going to be easy as hurdles to the debt-limit increase are likely to be the same as in the $38 billion budget cut and include the Democrats demand for Planned Parenthood funding and John Boehner and the Republicans stance on health care, the environment, and abortion rights.

Gene Sperling has been the lead administrator for the government’s strategy on the debt-limit debate. A debate which will be battling through Congress this month and has the potential to be a “recovery-ending event,” as quoted by Ben Bernanke in Calme’s New York Times article.

New York Times, April 10, 2011
Next on Agenda for Washington: Fight Over Debt

Government Shutdown is Averted

Political opposition showed in Congress as the government passed an eleventh hour bill that would cut $38 billion from the federal budget for the remaining months of this year. In his first month in the position, Speaker of the House, John Boehner was unrelenting in his Republican stance on the need to decrease funding to Planned Parenthood programs. However, in the last leg of the discussion, President Obama overruled in the debate and funding to family planning programs remained unchanged as the Democratic Party remained loyal to their support for the programs.

New York Times, April 9, 2011
Budget Deal to Cut $38 Billion Averts Shutdown

Europe's Risks and the Euro

Portugal's request for bailout caused little disruption to financial markets. The euro gained following the expected announcement and speculators see Portugal as the final country in the region to require aid.

The European Commission Bank also signaled an easing of the region's risks this week. The bank's relaxed risk outlook for Spain and control over the fiscal situation in Portugal led to an increase in interest rates and an end to expansion of bailout mechanisms for the ESF and EFSF funds.

Spain and Italy, two periphery countries on the bailout watch list, have both shown positive improvements in recent weeks as their yield curves decoupled with 10-year bond yields falling to more normal rates nearing 5.0% and 3.25% respectively. 

Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2011
No Time for Euro Complacency

Portugal Third Country to Receive Eurozone Bailout

Portugal is the third, and hopefully final, country in the Eurozone to request aid for debt repayments coming due in June. Over the course of a year the Eurozone and its allies have structured funds to provide relief to Eurozone countries unable to make debt repayments.

Initial aid required by Greece was called upon in May 2010 and since then additional structured funding created by the European Central Bank and the IMF has relaxed the risk outlook for the region. Consent by the ECB and IMF to structure available funding for countries in need of a bailout has likely stopped a widespread contagion in the region as debt is highly interconnected within the seventeen member zone.

Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2011
Portugal Pleads for Rescue

Europe and the U.S.

Interest rate policy, open market operations or bond-buying, and bank reserve requirements are three weapons central banks can use when making strategic monetary policy decisions.

In Blackstone’s Wall Street Journal article he contrasts the use of these instruments by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve as well as other central banks such as China, Japan, and England.

The European Central Bank is likely to be the first central bank to raise interest rates since the 2008 Credit Crisis. Moving rates higher would signal that the country’s capital growth is expanding.

The US Federal Reserve currently remains in a period of quantitative easing which calls for government bond-buying through June 2011.

Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2011
Central Banks Grapple With Competing Forces

Housing's Toll on Inflation Measures

Housing or shelter costs make up a large part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accounting for 32% of headline CPI. The Federal Reserve's more favorable price index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), weights housing at 15%.

Rising housing costs, including rent and mortgage payments, are expected to rise through 2011 adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase rates to manage rising inflation expectations.

Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2011
Housing Bubble Continues to Haunt Fed